Difficulties, challenges and opportunities in the development of logistics industry

 The global epidemic today (referring to April 14) is extremely tragic. According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, the number of deaths exceeds 100000 and the number of confirmed cases exceeds 1.7 million, which has had a great impact on the world and China.  
   
 I divided the epidemic into two parts. The first part is the early stage of the epidemic. The core problem in the early stage lies in the supply side. I set the dividing time point between it and the middle and late stage on March 26 or 27, because on March 26, the personnel of Hubei Province were fully released from the provincial boundary; On the 27th, China's Ministry of foreign affairs declared that the country was closed and foreigners were not allowed to enter. Of course, there are still some industries that have not been closed, such as the Suifenhe River on the Sino Russian border.  
   
 The difference between the early stage and the middle and late stage is that the early stage focuses more on solving the transportation and delivery guarantee of medical protection materials and medical resources, and more importantly, ensuring the basic living needs of all people; The problems faced in the middle and later stages focus on the demand side.  
   
 As the world's factory, China's supply capacity is very strong. On the one hand, we have a complete industrial structure. We are the only country in the world with all industrial categories of the United Nations, and all industries of the industrial system are covered; On the other hand, after 40 years of reform and opening up, the market economy has developed rapidly, especially in recent years, the rapid rise and development of Internet commerce and mobile Internet e-commerce have enabled us to effectively guarantee medical protection materials and basic living needs under the very strict restriction of epidemic prevention and isolation, which should be praised all over the world.  
   
 However, with the coming of the middle and late stage, we are facing a greater difficulty, that is, the global closure of countries and cities. In 2019, the total import and export volume of China's foreign trade is about 31.54 trillion, and the GDP is 99 trillion, so foreign trade accounts for about 1 / 3 of GDP. China's export volume is the first in the world, and the import volume is the second in the world. However, we must clearly understand that China is so high  Imports come from China's strong exports. The "world factory" made in China is only one link in the global industrial chain.  
   
 Now the global press the pause button, and the global supply chain is damaged; But after the pause key? We have a great probability of encountering a very large risk. Since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the tide of economic globalization has been strong. Due to the strong mobility of capital, but the relatively fixed labor force, the globalized capital has been effectively combined with the labor force in China and Southeast Asia, which have extremely low labor cost, which has greatly improved the efficiency of global resource allocation, However, the negative effect of globalization has led to the deprivation of low-end labor posts for the lowest class of the general public in developed countries. Even though the United States has given a lot of subsidies to manufacturing industries in the past, such as steel, automobile and aircraft manufacturing, its high labor costs and supply chain costs, It is still difficult to stop the market competitiveness of the integrated supply chain and industrial chain ecology of the globally rising developing countries.  
   
 Therefore, since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, we can see that the voice of bottom workers in developed countries for improving people's livelihood has become stronger and stronger. In recent years, whether the brexit of the United Kingdom, the yellow vest movement in France or trump in the United States have actually represented the voice of the bottom people, especially the largest majority of bottom people who have lost low-end jobs,  In fact, the governments of western developed countries have long gone against the trend of globalization in order to meet the needs of elections,  Therefore, populism, isolationism, trade protectionism and extreme nationalism have begun to spread all over the world from the government to the bottom.  
   
 The epidemic has intensified the process of anti globalization. The United States has confirmed that it wants to move the medical resources industry chain from China back to the United States. Now officials have issued a call for American enterprises to move back to the United States and give tax incentives related to relocation; In Japan, the government has issued a policy to directly spend 243.5 billion yen to help enterprises in China move back to Japan, of which the government of small and medium-sized enterprises pays 2 / 3 of the relocation expenses and the government of large enterprises pays 1 / 2. It can be predicted that for the needs of the election, developed countries are likely to accelerate the relocation of the industrial chain from China after the epidemic. Although the low-end supply chain is subject to the cost advantages, organizational advantages and scale advantages of China's complete industrial chain, the encirclement, suppression and escape of China by high-end supply chains and high-tech products are becoming grey rhinoceros.  
   
 In the early stage of the epidemic,  Logistics industry should be the first and most important industry in all industries to be protected,  During this period, medical protective materials and basic living needs are the most needed under the epidemic prevention and isolation policy. If measured by the rate of return on investment and the number of people's livelihood, they are even higher than medical resources. Therefore, express enterprises and e-commerce have come to the forefront of the national epidemic prevention action with outstanding achievements; In the middle and late stage of the epidemic, we will face more problems in maintaining and repairing the international logistics of the damaged global supply chain.  
   
 As we all know, although 70% of the Eurasian trade in shipping is related to China, the proportion of China's shipping in the global shipping industry is just the opposite. Among the three major shipping alliances, M2, the and ocean, only COSCO occupies one of them, and its strength is far inferior to that of Maersk, Mediterranean and other fleets. Especially for shipping agents and shipping companies, only 10% of the ships are in the hands of China, while 90% are controlled by other leading enterprises in the world.  
   
 Aviation logistics is even worse. The top three in the world have nearly 70% of cargo aircraft. For example, FedEx has 681 cargo aircraft, DHL has 270 cargo aircraft and UPS has 261 cargo aircraft; The total number of cargo aircraft owned by 13 air cargo companies in mainland China is 174, of which Shunfeng Airlines has 58. In contrast, China's shipping industry as a whole does not have the international logistics capacity to match its market.  
   
 Once the anti globalization trend is formed, other governments only need to control global logistics resources, which is enough to destroy China's labor dividend and the market advantage of a complete supply chain. So,  In the future, ensuring the global logistics capacity of the global supply chain will become a very important "winner" of China's real global trade competition.  Anti globalization not only impacts "made in China", but also comprehensively impacts China's international logistics industry.  
   
 The strict epidemic prevention isolation with Chinese characteristics makes the concept of "contactless logistics" a hot topic in the logistics industry. In the PPT, we can see that the "contactless logistics" we think should be high-tech technologies or black technology products such as UAV, unmanned vehicle, Kiva robot, automatic sorting, automatic transmission, automatic loading and transfer and robot delivery; But what about the actual situation? We can't even use the most common "contactless" shared express cabinets in the community, which we are used to at ordinary times. Because organizations at all levels are lazy and avoid responsibility, and isolation measures are added layer by layer, couriers are not allowed to use express cabinets in the community at all. On the contrary, they work as stalls at the door of the community, and all recipients have to go in and out and have close contact, The management personnel of the community have increased the number of verification and temperature measurement dozens of times, which is a hundred and ten times higher than the risk caused by the courier entering the community; Communities in key epidemic areas such as Wuhan also organized volunteers to take the way of rope and rod delivery. Although there is no way for the time being, this is by no means the development direction of contactless logistics in the future.  
   
 The importance of logistics industry is becoming more and more prominent. Since 2014, China's economy has entered the "new economic normal", the traditional Troika driving economic development has changed, in which consumption exceeds the pull of foreign trade and investment. The core of consumption lies in trade channels, and the guarantee of trade channels is logistics. Therefore, since 2014, the central government has attached great importance to the logistics industry, put forward the cost reduction and efficiency increase of the logistics industry, and launched the three-year action plan for cost reduction and efficiency increase of the logistics industry (2016-2018) in 2016. However, three years later, according to the statistical results, the proportion of total social expenses of logistics industry in GDP has not decreased, but increased by 0.2%, as can be seen from the PPT,  Except that the proportion of total transportation expenses decreased by 0.3%, the proportion of storage expenses and logistics management expenses increased by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.  
 The proportion of the total cost of social logistics in GDP increased by 0.2 percentage points. The fundamental reason is that the core endowment of resource allocation failed to play a leading role. In the process of transferring logistics to supply chain, we are relatively slow, especially in the logistics system based on global supply chain.  
   
 The vocabulary of supply chain existed in the 1960s, but now the term "supply chain" comes from the "value chain" in Michael Porter's book competitive advantage. In 1996, porirer and Reiter put forward the definition of supply chain, which continues to this day.  
 The most influential professional organization in the field of global logistics and supply chain is the American Material Distribution Association, which was established in 1963. It was renamed the American Logistics Management Association in 1985. The association proposed that logistics will turn to the supply chain in 1998. China also published many academic papers on supply chain management during this period, including Ma Shihua's book supply chain management. In 2001, the Department of industrial engineering was established in Tsinghua University. I was ordered to participate in the establishment of the Department of industrial engineering and set up the first course of supply chain management in China. It should be said that for logistics, China is theoretically 60 years behind the United States and 20 years behind Japan; But in the theory of supply chain management, there should be little gap in China. In 2005, the American Logistics Management Association was renamed the American supply chain management professional association, and the Society Award was awarded to Professor Martin Christopher of Oxford University. The main point of Professor Martin's award is,  "The competition in the 21st century is no longer the competition between enterprises, but the competition between supply chains."  
   
 In particular, it should be noted that on January 25, 2012, at the Davos conference in Switzerland, Ms. Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Homeland Security of the United States, published the white paper, the national strategy for global supply chain security of the United States, which has completely presented the overall trend of the United States in the global supply chain system, Its two objectives include global safe and efficient cargo transportation and flexible supply chain.  
   
 Judging from the subtitles of the two goals, it seems that people and animals are harmless, but the risks and fatal threats identified by it are not only the increasingly frequent natural disasters, but also the other five elements affecting the national security of its global supply chain. The order is to challenge the international monetary status of the US dollar, China, the European Union, Russia and terrorist organizations. Is it a bit of fear?  
   
 Then, Germany, Britain, Japan and South Korea also began to establish supply chain management as a national strategy. On October 5, 2017, the State Council issued the national strategy of actively promoting supply chain innovation and application, which is mainly divided into four industries and two directions.  
 The so-called four industries, the first is the agricultural supply chain, the second is China's most dependent manufacturing industry, the third is the energy supply chain, and the fourth is the supply chain finance; There are two directions, one is green supply chain and the other is global supply chain.  
   
 China's logistics industry has high cost and low efficiency, but not in every segment. For example, China's express industry leads the world in terms of revenue and express volume. In 2019, it has completed 63 billion pieces and business revenue of 745 billion yuan, exceeding the total express volume of all developed countries in the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea. Then, why does the express industry outshine in the market segment of the logistics industry? I think there are four core elements.  
   
 The first is that there is a rapidly growing market space, with an increase of 25-50% for six consecutive years, which originates from the rapid growth of China's Internet e-commerce platform market, and 70% of e-commerce logistics is supported by express logistics. The traditional Chinese retail industry has backward channels and poor reputation. Therefore, when the Internet retail platform was born, it was immediately sought after by consumers. In particular, it realized that differentiated supply and personalized demand can be accurately connected with near zero cost and near zero delay and form a large-scale, which greatly enriched the two scales of supply and demand market and promoted the fast-growing express market.  
 The second is a huge labor dividend. There are more than 4 million express employees in China, and 70.07% of the express brothers have a monthly income of less than 5000 yuan; In contrast, the United States has only 700000 express employees, and the average income is more than three times that of China's express brother. The topic that can be picked up later is that highly liquid capital and cheap labor fixed in the domestic market have optimized the allocation of resources very efficiently.  
   
 The third is the more effective resource allocation capability brought by black technologies such as Internet, mobile Internet, Internet of things, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud services. Traditionally, migrant workers without any skills have only a monthly salary of 600-3000 yuan in their first job in the city, but now the salary of the express brother is about 5000 yuan; According to statistics, the average length of service of the express brother is only 9 months, and then he will turn to the take out brother and increase the monthly salary to 4000-20000 yuan. Among them, the key elements or endowments of resource allocation come from mobile payment, mobile navigation, Nb IOT, big data and cloud services and express operation platforms supported by artificial intelligence, making various element endowments perfectly integrated in time, space and logic dimensions.  
   
 The fourth factor is the thrust of strong and highly liquid global capital. We can see the scale of capital injection into the express market in recent years from the chart on the right. This is why the lack of low-end jobs in western developed countries and the integration of capital that has flowed to developing countries are the reasons. The governments of developed countries affected by the votes have to obtain the approval of the majority of voters in the way of "anti globalization".  
   
 Compared with the unique express industry, China's logistics industry is hard to return. Here, I classify the four factors affecting the cost and efficiency of China's logistics industry as "two haves and two deficiencies". "Two haves" include: first, China's logistics market is equally broad. As the world's second largest economy and second largest consumer market, China's logistics market is also the world's first. In 2019, both freight volume and freight turnover are 3-4 times that of the United States; Second, labor red still exists. There are nearly 60 million employees in China's logistics industry, and many of them are self-employed. For example, there are 30 million truck drivers, 15 million vehicles and 7.5 million transportation enterprises in road freight transportation. On average, transportation enterprises have two vehicles, and their wages are low.  
   
 "Two deficiencies" include the lack of logistics technology / operation system and capital.  
   
 At the level of Technology / operation system, the first is road freight, which accounts for 77.81% of the freight volume in 2019  The industry concentration is low.  China's road freight industry concentration is only 1.2% and the express industry concentration is only 3.0, compared with 78% in the top 10 industries in the United States and 55% in the top 5 industries. Too low industry concentration will lead to "small scattered difference" in the whole industry, market price distortion and over limit overload caused by excessive competition, which will also lead to the lack of bargaining power, long accounting period and serious shortage of cash flow.  
   
 The second is  Lack of urban centralized distribution technology system.  The cost control ability and efficiency of branch logistics and capillary logistics positioned in urban centralized distribution are seriously lower than the same inter city trunk logistics, and the distribution cost of the last kilometer and the last 100m is dozens of times higher than that of trunk logistics.  
 The third is the serious shortage of market response ability of Railway Logistics in a monopoly position. Although the top-level transportation national policy has planned three years of "public to rail" and "public to water" transportation structure adjustment, after two years, the railway freight volume has been combined with various policies, such as the mandatory transformation of the blue sky defense war, the increase of railway freight rate reduction, the signing of bulk freight long-term agreement contracts with large enterprises and the promotion of rail sea public multimodal transport, The proportion of railway freight volume has only increased from 7.80% in 2017 to 8.19% in 2019, and the proportion of water transportation has increased to 13.99%. On the one hand, the reason for the low proportion of railway is due to its strong planning and insufficient responsiveness and service flexibility, on the other hand, it is due to the inherent market obstacles caused by the power rent-seeking of end posts due to insufficient incentives in state-owned monopoly enterprises. Of course, it is believed that this disadvantage will increase with the informatization, networking and With the development of digitization and the improvement of automation equipment such as robots.  
   
 The structural adjustment of "public to rail" and "public to water" transportation is considered from the whole system and cycle of national economic development. First, the active fiscal policy implemented by the government has been implemented in the railway public base. According to the medium and long-term railway planning, the cumulative investment will be 3.8 trillion yuan by 2030. The railway network covers each county, and the "public to rail" will effectively promote the use of investment resources; Second, many provinces and cities around the capital can take advantage of the green environmental protection attributes of rail and water transportation to promote the blue sky defense war; Third, use the "public to rail" to gradually change the distorted freight market price system and abandon the black economy and overload.  
   
 At the capital level,  Reflected in the long accounting period and serious shortage of cash flow.  
   
 Why is the concentration of road freight and warehousing industries very poor? Because they have no voice, the corresponding cooperative enterprises such as shipping companies, freight forwarders, ports and railways, especially the customers of Party A, these small, medium-sized and micro logistics enterprises do not have any voice and bargaining power, so the accounting period is very long. They can't get accounts receivable from three months to half a year, one year or even several years after providing logistics services.  
   
 Its payment demand is very strong and the time limit is very short. For example, cash payment is required to pay employees' wages and fuel expenses. In this way, the extremely tight cash flow will inevitably lead to the inability to expand the scale of the enterprise and improve the industry concentration.  
   
 At the same time, for these enterprises, "difficult financing" and "expensive financing" are natural companions. Because these enterprises are "small, scattered and poor", their reputation and credit are seriously insufficient. In particular, the average life span of private enterprises is only 2.7 years. How can they have high credit and low credit "expensive financing" is reasonable and inevitable.  
   
 "Financing difficulty" can not be avoided. The common feature of banks and other non bank financial institutions is risk prevention and control. No matter what preferential policies the bank head office has issued, the sub branch heads of grass-roots banks should be responsible for the loans for life. For small and micro private enterprises with no credit or low credit, the sub branch heads will naturally refuse to lend in order to avoid risks and responsibilities, and the "financing difficulty" exists so reasonably.  
   
 Then, once the government requires financial support for small and micro private enterprises, and the head of grass-roots sub branches can't avoid it, then this part of the funds must idle within the financial institutions, resulting in all kinds of financial white tricks derived from the system of banks and non bank financial institutions, and the financing of small and micro enterprises is not different from usury.  
   
 We can also see that the global effective multimodal transport system can not play a role in China. In Europe and the United States, about 40% of the public rail intermodal transport, and 49.5% of the rail sea intermodal transport in the United States for three consecutive years; The proportion of China's highway rail intermodal transport is only 2.9%. After policy promotion and market pull, the sea rail intermodal transport has only increased from 1.5% to 1.8% and only 0.3% over the past two years.  
   
 As for the warehousing and logistics parks with higher cost proportion, although the industry association counted that 67.9% of the logistics parks invested and constructed nationwide have been in good operation, I took the postgraduates to visit the top logistics parks. The data are not optimistic. Many logistics parks are still raising grass and really achieve about 1 / 6 of the operation according to the planning objectives, This may be because the logistics park is the only one that is easiest to obtain land approval in the past decade, so it is most likely to be falsely approved by the local government and market capital.  
   
 Another thing worth mentioning is that China's cold chain system is also seriously insufficient. The epidemic situation is particularly prominent. Due to the timeliness and perishable nature of fresh agricultural products, the lack of grass-roots facilities and systems in the social cold chain, farmers' fresh food can not be sold and can only rot, while urban residents are eager to buy fresh food with low price and quality.  
   
 Compared with western developed countries, in the 1960s, they have popularized the cold chain for ordinary fresh agricultural products, so agricultural products are rarely spoiled in circulation; Most of China's cold chains only exist in drugs and high-end seafood. The reason is that we lack items in the construction of grass-roots facilities in the social cold chain. Developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea use taxes for infrastructure construction of the cold chain, while China only relies on enterprise investment in the market.  
   
 The cold chain is special. The whole process from pre cooling in the field to retail freezers at the end should be closed. As long as there is a loophole in one link, it will cause a waste of investment in the whole cold chain. Therefore, the investment risk of market-oriented logistics enterprises in the cold chain is great. Once the government builds the social cold chain infrastructure, the return on investment of market-oriented enterprises will be guaranteed.  
   
 So is it difficult for our logistics industry to have a future? In fact, it is not pessimistic. Even under the constraints of the existing system and mechanism, the logistics industry still has great market opportunities.  

Transformation of intelligent logistics supply chain from informatization and networking to digital era

Students should pay special attention to that the definitions and connotations of informatization, networking and digitization are strictly different.  
   
 Informatization solves the problem of digital communication between man and machine.  For example, Oracle database used by many enterprises in manufacturing enterprise informatization, PDM Product data management of PTC company, ERP enterprise resource management of SAP company, MES manufacturing execution system and WMS inventory management system mainly realize the real-time and non real-time monitoring, scheduling and planning of various resources of the enterprise by managers.  
   
 Networking solves the problem of digital communication between people.  In 1969, the birth of Internet technology began in 1995, and China began the Internet business age. The Internet bubble emerged before and after 2000. When the Internet bubble was squeezed out, the Internet economy began to officially enter the stage of history and change the life of human beings. In the past, the business channels of entities simultaneously determined the universality and regulatory model at both ends of production and consumption, but the Internet directly changed the trade channels between production and consumption. The traditional entity business channel middlemen are the most important. They can make money by grasping the information at both ends of production and consumption  The Internet platform solves the problem of short circuit between production and consumption, and realizes the personalization and differentiation at both ends of supply and demand with near zero cost and near zero delay.  
   
 Digitization solves the data interconnection between devices,  The technologies relied on include big data, cloud services, mobile Internet, Internet of things, artificial intelligence, blockchain and cyber system. In the past 20 years, it has promoted the emergence and development of digitization on the basis of informatization and networking, so as to integrate it with the most liquid capital and quickly realize the optimization and re optimization of resource allocation.  
   
 According to Oxfam UK, the total wealth of the world's top 67 rich in 2015 exceeded the total wealth of the world's bottom 3.5 billion people; In 2016, the total wealth of the world's top eight rich exceeded that of the bottom 3.5 billion people in the world; In 2018, the total wealth of the top five millionaires exceeded that of the last 3.5 billion. This growing wealth gap and Gini coefficient will inevitably lead to people's livelihood problems. Digitization will further strengthen the original strong liquidity of capital and the ability to optimize the resource allocation of the labor force in developing countries, resulting in the loss of bottom jobs in developed countries, which can explain a series of phenomena such as the yellow horse armour movement in France, Trump in the United States and brexit in the United Kingdom, Vote politics prompted the government to choose to start the process of "anti globalization".  
   
 What is digitization? To give you a simple example, equipment can be self-organized and self consistent through digital. German "industry 4.0" and its cyber system are solving this problem.  
   
 In the past, in the information age, enterprises could formulate a scientific master production plan MPs through ERP system and give it to the team leader to organize production. Workers would pick up parts, handle and process parts according to the plan, or arrange robot picking up, AGV trolley handling and robot processing; However, changes have taken place in the cyber system in the digital age of industry 4.0. The cybernetic system of the core of industry 4.0 also generates a production plan generated by instructions, but this production plan is not only transmitted to the team leader and decomposed to planners, dispatchers and workers, but also to shelves, AGV cars, robots, processing equipment and processed parts. Workers know when and where to pick up from which shelf, which AGV to transport, which processing equipment to use, which process to adopt and which parts to process; The processing equipment knows when and where, which operator uses which process to process which parts; AGV or robot knows when and where to pick up from which shelf and transport to which equipment for processing; Parts also know when and where they are picked up by which robot from which shelf, transported by which AGV and processed by which worker in which equipment. All relevant elements can shake hands with each other and carry out self-organized processing. This is the industrial 4.0 system in the digital era. On the one hand, it ensures the self-organized error correction of the bottom layer, and on the other hand, it improves the efficiency and flexibility of the bottom layer.  
   
 From the information age to the network age, the most influential typical case is "Li & Fung supply chain". Li & Fung was first established in Guangzhou in 1906; In 1937, he moved to Hong Kong and established the famous Feng's Holding Co., Ltd. with trade as the core; In 1992, Li & Fung Limited was listed in Hong Kong as a trading company.  
   
 Li & Fung Group felt the opportunity in the information age. In 1985, Feng Guojing and Feng Guolun, the successors of the third generation of enterprises, used the information technology award to build Li & Fung from a trader into a "quasi manufacturer" for joint development and borderless decentralized virtual production. At the highest time, Li & Fung built more than 260 offices and warehouses in more than 40 economies around the world and employed 35000 employees, It has attracted 15000 suppliers all over the world. Li & Fung Group achieved US $3.2 billion in revenue in 2000; $20.3 billion in revenue in 2001; At that time, the market value was HK $205 billion.  
   
 However, with the advent of the network era, people begin to connect. Over the past two decades, Internet commerce has mainly been consumer Internet, which has realized the accurate connection between personalized demand and differentiated supply with nearly zero cost and nearly zero delay, and formed a large-scale. The Internet greatly facilitates the short connection between the supply and demand sides, and then directly affects the market space for middlemen to earn the price difference. The "Li & Fung supply chain", once a benchmark of the global supply chain, has been abandoned by the new market. On March 20, 2020, the market value of Li & Fung Group was only HK $4.3 billion; Li & Fung shareholders chose privatization and found PLoS to seek 150% premium M & A, which only recently brought the market value back to HK $8.8 billion. This is the transformation from informatization to networking.  
   
 So what has changed from networking to digitization? Digital economy has become an important support for China's industry. According to the white paper on China's digital economy development and employment (2018), the scale of our digital economy has reached 3.13 billion yuan, accounting for 34.8% of GDP, 191 million jobs have been solved, accounting for 24.6%. As you can see, digital economy has become a pillar industry to solve people's livelihood and drive economic development.  
   
 The digital economy has nurtured many famous companies. Tencent's revenue in the 2019 financial report reached nearly 377.2 billion yuan, of which the revenue of online games led by King glory reached 114.7 billion yuan, the revenue of cloud services reached 17 billion yuan, and the total net profit of the group reached 93.3 billion yuan; In 2019, the revenue reached 140 billion, of which the advertising revenue reached 120 billion; Kwai Kwai's revenue is 50 billion, live broadcast has reached 23 billion, and 20 million have obtained income on fast track, 5 million of them come from the national poverty counties.  
   
 The Internet and digital economy have also promoted the development of contactless economy. The most obvious performance is Japan. According to the statistics of the Japanese cabinet office government, there are more than 1 million young people under the age of 40 living in seclusion, of which 80% are men, and most of them have master's degrees or above; The data of shibuya109, a well-known Japanese survey company, is for girls aged 15-24, of which 70% belong to otaku. Japanese scholars once asked me to analyze the reasons for this phenomenon from the perspective of foreigners. My conclusion is that Japan has entered developed countries for too long, but the supply is basically common, and the demand after supply exceeds demand will evolve into differentiation or customization, and the differentiated demand has only common supply, There may also be a house family and a generation without desire.  
   
 Digital economy can be divided into two parts. One part is the digitization of traditional industries, that is, traditional manufacturing and service industries can be digitally enabled. Through digitization, the original information, networking and digitization in the industry can be associated to realize the digital connection between equipment. Made in China 2025, which was often mentioned in China in the past, is now the integration of industrialization and informatization. In fact, it is the digital upgrading of traditional industries. A progress in the digital upgrading of traditional industries is that there is less waste of resources and a more accurate relationship between supply and demand, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency.  
   
 The other part is the industrialization of digital technology. The digital industry can also be divided into two levels. One level is the digital technology industry oriented to technology, such as R & D robot, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud services, Internet of things and blockchain. Although many digital technologies are not yet mature, such as robots, artificial intelligence and so on; There are many products with high cost and small scale, but I believe that with the maturity of technology and the expansion of market scale, the digital technology industry will expand more and more.  
   
 Another level is the application-oriented digital industry. Although digital technology and its products may eliminate some workers' jobs, in the past 300 years, all new technologies, inventions and products have not reduced the total number of jobs, but expanded jobs on a larger scale.  
   
 Application oriented digital technology can also support fool like applications, that is, applications that support even the lowest end jobs. For example, the Kwai Fu has solved the employment problem of the 5 million poorest rural areas by using live goods, which is why what countries are eager to promote the development of new digital economy. First, the digital economy helps solve people's livelihood problems, and uses the digital platform to project investment directly to the bottom, which is very penetrating; Second, the digital economy can be self-employed without relying on the government; Third, the application-oriented digital economy has reduced the threshold of post skills. The posts of some new formats of digital industry do not necessarily require university graduation, postgraduate graduation and doctoral graduation, but everyone can enjoy this digital industry and new format.  
   
 Like informatization and networking, digital economy will also have the function of connecting the past and the future. On the one hand, it will act on the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries in the past, and will also become a sustainable development industry affecting the national economy and industrial structure in the future.  
   
 The government should be forward-looking and instructive in industrial strategy. In the era of Reagan administration, the United States launched three major measures when the electronics and automobile industries completely lagged behind Japan. One is the Plaza Agreement, which encircles Japan in terms of finance; The other two are directly oriented to manufacturing. First, in 1988, the U.S. Department of defense commissioned the aikoka Institute of Caspian university to conduct research on "agile manufacturing". Three years later, Caspian University launched the model of Virtual Enterprise Based on agile manufacturing, which later evolved into the "Internet" of manufacturing industry, and even supported the "Reindustrialization" strategy proposed by the United States later; Second, Wu Xianming Research Institute of the University of Michigan was entrusted to launch the automobile "2mm project" for Detroit and the "6mm project" directly for Japanese cars. That is, the total length cumulative error of automobile body in white is no more than 2mm, which greatly and systematically improves the manufacturing quality. These three strategies help the U.S. manufacturing industry defeat Japan and regain the first place in the world.  
   
 Digital application also promotes the development of supply chain finance based on supply chain.  
   
 When an industry is on the rise, such as the express industry, which has been growing at a high speed for six consecutive years, it will inevitably lead to strong liquidity capital chase and heavy asset investment. For example, Shunfeng invests in Ezhou airport and competes to buy air cargo aircraft, Jingdong builds unmanned warehouses, unmanned vehicles and UAVs, and rookies globally layout backbone logistics hub outlets. In fact, at present, it does not necessarily meet the current investment return, but it fully matches the capital's expectations for future market control.  
   
 When an industry is in a stable or even downward trend, capital will be more inclined to light asset operation. For example, the number of online freight platforms for "small scattered and poor" road freight (formerly known as "vehicle free carriers") has increased sharply. It is believed that the economy and the whole industry can be expected to decline from the epidemic this year. The priority of enterprises in most industries should be to light assets and comprehensively coordinate market opportunities and investment risks.  
   
 The core of supply chain finance is to support small and micro enterprises, which are characterized by difficult and expensive financing. Due to the poor credit of small and micro enterprises, expensive financing is inevitable, but difficult financing is not necessary.  
   
 The innovation ability of small and micro enterprises is the strongest, and the innovative small and micro enterprises accepted by the market are also the fastest growing. Most of the support of government guidance funds in developed countries falls on small and micro enterprises, but China's government guidance funds basically fall on large enterprises and central enterprises; At the same time, small and micro enterprises account for the highest proportion of jobs, that is, helping the government to protect people's livelihood. This brings a core thinking, how can we ensure and help small and micro enterprises survive?  
   
 Different from direct fiscal and tax subsidies, it is unrealistic for domestic commercial banks and financial institutions outside existing banks to directly support small and micro enterprises. The primary task of commercial banks and financial institutions outside existing banks is to prevent risks. If branch presidents want to bear unlimited risks for the insufficient credit of small, medium and micro private enterprises, they must avoid or do nothing at the operational level. Therefore, no matter what preferential policies the state gives to promote financial institutions to directly connect with the financing of small, medium and micro private enterprises, in reality, they can only idle in financial institutions. Finally, they evolve into white gloves (arbitrage enterprises) bred in financial institutions. Small, medium and micro enterprises still face loans in the form of "usury".  
   
 Only large-scale (/ head) enterprises such as chain owners / allies who have direct business relations with small, medium and micro enterprises and can use their own voice or strong control over the whole supply chain to ensure that they can avoid the default of small, medium and micro enterprises. They either have sufficient cash flow or have enough credit to obtain large-scale (even low interest) loans from financial institutions, The actual transactions (including transaction contracts) of trade-related small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the supply chain are used to support the supply chain financial services. Only when the chain leader / alliance leader enterprises have the ability to monitor / supervise and provide financial support to the supply chain, they are also willing to carry out supply chain financial services, and obtain additional benefits from the supply chain financial services, can it be possible to ensure the smooth operation of the whole supply chain. Alibaba platform is to self evaluate the credit of borrowers based on the actual transaction data on Taobao / tmall.  
 Informatization, networking and digitization also continue to promote the evolution of smart capabilities in the smart supply chain. The first generation of intelligent supply chain is mainly reflected in the optimization of resource allocation within each function of the supply chain, such as milk delivery line in transportation (the famous traveling salesman problem in mathematical programming), Multi-level Inventory Optimization in warehousing, etc. with the progress of science and technology, it has gradually evolved into more and more quantitative optimization.  
   
 The second generation smart supply chain changes from the internal functions of the supply chain to the optimization of resource allocation among the functions of the supply chain, such as the function conversion between transportation and warehousing. Amazon's flywheel effect includes the 48 hour delivery service for gold medal members and the one hour delivery service in prosperous urban areas. The reason why it can be delivered in one hour must be that there must be inventory in the nearest place of the customer, and warehousing can replace long-distance transportation to realize the efficient distribution of the nearest local inventory. However, large inventory itself brings high costs, and the inventory cost control actually depends on Amazon's most advantageous big data and cloud computing capabilities in the world, so that Amazon can accurately predict the demand of gold medal members. Chinese enterprises have learned this very quickly, such as the "double 11" and "618" e-commerce carnivals. In the early days of such festivals, the lesbians who cut hands for Mr. Ma and brother Qiang grabbed the products that needed to wait a week or even a month to get their hearts. The excitement period for shopping has passed; Nowadays, many products are purchased within a few days or even hours. This is because businesses have already returned to local demand according to big data before "double 11" or "618", and transported goods across provinces and cities to local warehouses in advance. On the day of the shopping festival, they just took them out of the local warehouse for intra city landing distribution, and no longer compete for long-distance freight resources in busy times; Also, the "front warehouse" operation mode of fresh supermarkets such as "box horse fresh" also comes from this.  
   
 The third generation smart supply chain directly changes the overall industrial structure of the supply chain. In the past, coal was transported from Shanxi to Shandong for thermal power generation, and then generated power in Shandong power plant; Now, pithead power generation and ultra-high voltage power transmission and transformation directly realize the systematic cost reduction and efficiency increase of the industrial chain and logistics system; In addition, time-sharing leasing such as sharing bicycles also belongs to the way of directly using "one-time investment and multiple returns", which has changed the wisdom of the supply chain, but it also depends on the informatization, networking and digitization ability of resource matching.  
   
 The fourth generation smart supply chain is a parallel / parallel supply chain that optimizes resource allocation. With the support of informatization, networking and digitization, various resources can be connected synchronously and in parallel as needed, and even a cost-free and profit-making mode of "output first and input later" can be set. The cash income of the supply chain does not necessarily come from the final consumers, but may come from all links of the supply chain. The so-called "wool comes from pigs" on the Internet may become the core element of competition between supply chains. For example, embedded advertising in the film and television industry belongs to a new model that has not started shooting and has recovered all its investment.  
 This "no cost, no profit" operation mode can also be extended to the marginal profit sharing mode of new investment in the existing sunk cost system. For example, in the long-term capital investment and policy support of the state, the national railway network will cover every county, the postal network will cover every natural village, the supply and marketing cooperative network will cover every township, and the poverty alleviation network will cover every family. These government regulated livelihood networks are a mixture of market mechanism and administrative service mechanism, with huge investment and serious losses. However, if the joint operation of value-added services is carried out on this powerful infrastructure network, the marginal income will be huge, which also helps the government and central enterprises make up for part of the market income.  
   
 The advantage of digital economy lies in its large-scale marginal production cost approaching zero, so it has strong market vitality in the future new economy. In the supply side structural reform, it will inevitably evolve into a new economy and new market of the logistics industry. Its new feature is the personalization (customization), timeliness, convenience and initiative of logistics service demand, which is the new industrial chain ecology of "consumer centered" in the supply chain.  
   
 In the early stage of the epidemic, it is a supply side problem, which can be solved in a short time; However, in the middle and late stage of the epidemic and even after the epidemic, it will face the problem of consumer end. Economic globalization not only enhances the ability of global resource allocation, but also leads to the global further structural oversupply of the whole industry. China is even more prominent. For example, the global production capacity of the iron and steel industry is 1.8 billion tons, China accounts for 900 million tons, while the global demand is only 1.36 billion tons, especially 56% of China's iron and steel still belongs to building materials steel, which is an absolute oversupply.  
 The current situation of global structural oversupply has directly led to the all-round competition for the consumer market in all links of the supply chain, but serving consumers is precisely China's weakness. The competitive advantage of "made in China" lies in cost advantage, organizational advantage and scale advantage. The competitive advantage lies in quality disadvantage, innovation disadvantage, efficiency (energy consumption) disadvantage and service disadvantage.  
   
 China has been in a self-sufficient small-scale farming economic society for a long time. After the founding of the people's Republic of China, it has experienced a planned economic system for decades. There is an extreme lack of research on the characteristics of consumer consumption and the spirit of contract from bottom to top; Compared with the Mediterranean, the commercial civilization caused by the lack of arable land has been inherited, which makes most western developed countries have a commercial society with a history of more than 500 years, and its core value is rooted in the understanding of consumption and the attention to commercial contracts.  
   
 It can be seen from the picture that when we pay attention to the box office revenue of films, the Hollywood film industry has developed to account for only 20% of the box office revenue, and the annual ticket revenue of the theme museum of Titanic reaches US $21 million; Disneyland's box office revenue accounts for only 30%, and the princess oza skirt in snow and ice (Episode 1) sells more than 3 million pieces every year; Catering and children's paradise in China's popular city squares have been popular, which has also led to the occupancy of department stores and clothing brand stores. However, this mall integrating commerce, entertainment and leisure has been popularized in Europe and America as early as the 1960s; Let's talk about the "if you are the one", "good voice of China" and "where's dad going?" And other popular programs are foreign copyrights. Therefore, what we need to strengthen and make up lessons is the real understanding of various consumer behaviors of different consumers.  
   
 We talked about Amazon's "storage for transportation" model, but in fact, Amazon's core operation model lies in the "flywheel effect" composed of its gold medal member - customized experience - third-party seller platform, which can be translated as "industrial chain ecology", Its core advantage in the digital age is its global leading cloud service Amazon Web services, which accounts for half of the global market. At the same time, its logistics distribution service has become a benchmark in the global logistics industry. It delivers gold medal members 48 hours after paying an annual fee of $99 The one hour delivery service in special areas has changed the American lifestyle (instead of buying fresh goods for one week at a time, it has also changed to buy and eat immediately similar to China), and forced Wal Mart, a giant once in physical retail, to make changes. On the one hand, it has closed nearly 400 stores, On the other hand, try to close the 7-day turnover cycle of the original distribution center to the 48 hour turnover cycle of Amazon distribution center. The market value of Amazon we see today has reached US $1.18 trillion. Among the top 50 global logistics enterprises just released in 2019, Amazon e-commerce logistics ranks first, DHL Express Logistics ranks second, K & n freight forwarding logistics ranks third, while only two enterprises in China, Sinotrans ranks 15th and Kerry Logistics in Hong Kong SAR ranks 25th. This shows the outstanding strength of Amazon logistics under the support of its big data and cloud services.  
   
 Last year was the first year of 5g business, and this year, with the support of the "new infrastructure" policy, we will focus on promoting 5g infrastructure and 5g business. However, 5g base stations consume a lot of power and operators have high operating costs. 3g4g operation mode based on traditional consumer Internet is difficult to cover operating costs in terms of revenue, let alone infrastructure costs; We can only consider various application scenarios based on industrial Internet and industrial Internet through the integration of 5g and edge technologies, such as 5g technology expansion, VR / AR, ultra-high definition video, Internet of vehicles, networked UAV, telemedicine, smart power, smart factory, smart Park, smart security, smart home and personal AI assistant, Meet the promotion needs of ITU's enhanced mobile broadband (embB), mass machine communication (mmtc) and low delay and high reliability communication (urllc) for object connection and vertical industry applications.  
   
 In the integration scenario of 5g and edge computing, it will catalyse the development of technologies such as "big data, cloud computing, mobile Internet, Internet of things, artificial intelligence" and blockchain. Because of time, I'll skip it. There are also relevant articles I wrote on the Internet.  
 In particular, the issue of dual chain integration of blockchain and supply chain should be raised. In November 2016, based on the scenario of game and blockchain technology in supply chain management, I proposed the concept of "dual chain integration of supply chain and blockchain" and published a series of articles, mainly based on the fact that the two chains have two pain points. Two pain points of blockchain: first, blockchain technology is difficult to implement without corresponding reward mechanism of bitcoin and other digital coins; Second, the efficiency of blockchain is extremely low under the scope of centralized market and management. One of the two pain points of the supply chain is that the upstream and downstream enterprises of the supply chain play games with each other and are difficult to truly "trust"; Second, it is difficult for business activities in the supply chain to be separated from the "intermediary" supervision with high cost and low efficiency. The advantages of the two chains just complement each other's pain points. The purpose of supply chain supervision / anti-counterfeiting / Traceability enables all parties in the chain to form an alliance chain without the incentive of digital currency. The game between the upstream and downstream of the supply chain just realizes the "decentralized" organization; The "disintermediation" and "no trust" desired by supply chain management are unique to blockchain, and the two sides are perfect. At present, I have directly established the research branch of double chain integration of supply chain and blockchain in China development network and China Industrial Development Research Institute, and organized a team to carry out relevant research and practical application on railway supply chain platform and second-generation multimodal transport platform.  

three

Typical enterprise cases of smart supply chain in the digital age

Many industries and enterprises have made outstanding achievements in the digital based intelligent supply chain. For example, in the material support of the epidemic, Alibaba's rookies use its global backbone hub network to organize the supply of goods around the world and send them to relevant units in Wuhan; Kyushu Tong, a pharmaceutical logistics enterprise, efficiently handled the medical material distribution of the Red Cross in two hours. However, in terms of time, I would like to briefly introduce two typical and excellent cases of domestic express logistics and e-commerce logistics in the digital era. Their core technical block diagram is in the picture, and I only give a brief explanation. Of course, they still have a certain gap from the digital intelligence ability of Amazon logistics.  
   
 The first is SF holdings, the third-party logistics of express delivery. It started from express delivery and took the lead, but it also competed with deppon in the express market. In 2019, the revenue of SF holdings was 112.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.37%; Among them, the revenue from supply chain business was 4.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.16%.  
   
 What deserves praise in the digital smart supply chain is SF's plan to build "lighthouse logistics" and "lighthouse business" similar to Amazon's flywheel effect.  
   
 SF lighthouse plan is to integrate courier, individual users, enterprise users, actual real estate community information, e-commerce data and social networks into enterprise big data, and build unlimited value-added imagination with the support of digitization. That's why Ali and SF worked together to build a rookie network and positioned rookies as "days (data)" among "days (data), places (storage) and people (distribution to the door)"; Wang Wei, the head of Shunfeng, clearly identified that rookies should take tmall / Taobao e-commerce logistics market as bait, get the relevant big data of Tongda system, Shunfeng and third-party warehousing enterprises and create a value-added industry ecology. Therefore, Wang Wei resolutely withdrew from rookies and made use of his own big numbers.  
   
 The first value-added scenario is the precise positioning of demand and supply between supply and demand in the supply chain; The core of the huge advertising market is the accurate matching between supply and demand. The second value-added scenario is to use big data for industry analysis, scenario early warning and whole chain consumer portrait analysis; Monitor through "Express - searchlight", perspective the whole inventory through "storage - dashboard", realize "business opportunity discovery", "risk prevention and control", "customer retention" and improve the repurchase rate through accurate business district and customer analysis of Express customers. The third value-added scenario is that in terms of networking and digitization, SF builds self networking, AI technology and IOT technology, and carries out integrated perception, decision-making and implementation of all products and customers through AI 2.0 and IOT.  
   
 Secondly, the enterprise introduced is Jingdong e-commerce self operated logistics, which also takes Amazon e-commerce self operated logistics as a model. JD's performance in 2019 was also not bad. JD's revenue in 2019 was 576.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%; The key is that the number of users reached 360 million and the platform sales exceeded 2 trillion; Jingdong's logistics revenue was 23.9 billion yuan, an increase of 63%. It can be imagined that it will inevitably form a tripartite market with SF and Ali rookies in the future.  
   
 Relying on JD group and entrusted by external logistics, JD logistics has quickly become a giant with an area of 16.9 million square meters and more than 700 warehouses, and has built 25 "Asia No. 1" intelligent logistics parks. In the smart logistics supply chain, it also chooses to learn from Amazon logistics as an industrial ecosystem. In 2020, JD logistics proposed to build a 6118 organizational structure. Its smart supply chain is mainly concentrated in six middle platforms, and forms six products with smart supply chain as the core, including supply chain, express, express, cold chain, warehouse and cross-border products.  
   
 JD x business unit focuses on the exploration of intelligent logistics and unmanned logistics links, and attempts such as unmanned warehouse, unmanned aerial vehicle, unmanned vehicle and underground capsule. Although at present, the cost control and technical maturity are far less than that of man-machine mixing, JD is more looking forward to attracting capital to expand the market in the rapidly growing market space of e-commerce logistics, Hillhouse capital, red shirt China China Merchants Group, Tencent and other institutions are more interested in this selling point, and JD logistics will naturally push the boat along the water and attract people's attention.  
   
 JD y business unit is a department that truly uses artificial intelligence, big data and cloud services to build a smart supply chain. In its logistics smart brain of smart supply chain, it mainly uses the data console and algorithm console to support data operation management and control, planning sand table deduction, intelligent execution system and data enabled supply chain, so as to ensure the intelligent optimization of logistics execution, logistics network and supply chain.  
   

four

Systematic innovation of modern intelligent logistics

If we say that the systematic wisdom of modern logistics should be attributed to containers and their delivery systems. Before 1956, the global shipping industry had only 5000 tons of seagoing ships, because no matter how big it was, it was useless. It takes five days for a 5000 ton cargo ship to unload and six days for loading. The loading and unloading in each port city needs to stay for two weeks. The port city also needs to be equipped with 50000 wharf workers as temporary porters to carry them on their shoulders and hands. Even crane loading and unloading is extremely inefficient, and the manufacturing industry targeting the global market can only be close to the port city.  
   
 However, as McLean promoted the application of containers, especially Professor Weldon of Johns Hopkins University theoretically proposed that 20-25 foot containers had the highest efficiency, which led to the establishment of container standards. By 1966, the popularization and use of standard containers had greatly improved the loading and unloading efficiency of cargo ships, and the automatic loading and unloading could reach 500 natural containers / hour, The hinterland has become the carrier of the global manufacturing industry, and the globalization of manufacturing industry has begun. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, it was the container system combined with low-cost labor in Asia that attracted the most mobile capital, resulting in the rise of the labor-intensive four little dragons in Asia; When China opened its door in the 1980s with a more labor price advantage, China also caught the train of economic globalization and globalization. The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are easy to cope with this. Multinational corporations that master liquid capital and fully enjoy the global policy dividend and labor dividend have become the most profitable groups for resource allocation optimization with the help of the container system.  
   
 However, it is precisely because of the combination of strong capital mobility and stable labor force that the low-end jobs in developed countries are generally unemployed, more and more low-end workers lose their jobs, and the living standards decline. It is inevitable to resist the capital and elite who occupy all the cheap, while the governments of western countries relying on political votes can only choose to go against globalization Populism and trade protectionism to protect people's livelihood.  
   
 The epidemic spread all over the world and intensified, which will inevitably aggravate the economic isolation and anti globalization process between countries. China, which is used to and benefits from economic globalization, will inevitably face unprecedented pressure. The central government's call on the whole people to think about the bottom line is also to plan ahead, fully deal with the greatest possible difficulties, and think about a new economic development model and system architecture.  
   
 Then there should be three corresponding smart logistics systematic system innovation. The first is to upgrade the structure of coal transportation and power generation to mine mouth power generation and ultra-high voltage power transmission, which I will not expand; The second is to promote the innovation system of 35 ton open top container multimodal transport dominated by railway bulk freight; The third is to build a "wild box" urban centralized distribution with the smallest closed transportation / Reprint unit to promote the innovation system of the second generation multimodal transport.  
   
 China has a vast territory, and its natural geographical layout, resource layout, industrial layout and economic layout all show structural characteristics. Except that Hu Weiyong line separates the rich from the poor, resources are concentrated in the West and North. The areas that got rich first in the reform and opening up are all in the southeast coast, which is closest to the global industrial chain. In the past, the industries in the southeast coastal areas were mainly overseas, pointing east to the seaport. The distance is short, and the road transportation is more flexible. Moreover, it has relatively stronger responsive service capacity, and does not need the railway with the advantage of long-distance transportation. Therefore, since the reform and opening up, the proportion of railway freight market has decreased steadily, from 60% to 30%, from 30% to 15%, and only 7.8% in 2017.  
   
 The economic development of the southeast coastal areas needs energy. In addition, most of the traditional leaders of Guodian come from Shandong, so thermal power is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas such as Shandong. China's coal resources are distributed in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mengxi. Therefore, the railway only needs to transport large quantities of coal to the southeast coastal areas through the west east coal transportation and North South coal transportation. 90% of the railway bulk transportation lies in coal. Therefore, the national development and Reform Commission, China Railway group and Shenhua Group have also arranged and constructed 100 million tons of special coal transportation railway heavy haul lines for a long time, From Daqin line to Wari line (Jinzhong South Railway Channel), Shuohuang line and Haoji line.  
   
 In order to ensure the large capacity and volume of the heavy haul railway of the special coal transportation line, automatic loading and unloading equipment is arranged at both ends of the railway, such as the purchase of automatic loader in the shipping yard and the construction of automatic dumper in the receiving yard, which seems to greatly improve the loading and unloading efficiency.  
 However, this kind of automation device turns the railway freight yard into an online resource like the railway network. Due to the two lines of railway revenue and expenditure and the year-end clearing mechanism, the freight yard of the Shipping Bureau only ships but does not want to receive it. It is called "arrival by departure", and after receiving the unloading from the Bureau, it can only empty the return trip free of charge (actually costs), Therefore, there is no enthusiasm. Therefore, there is "heavy removal and empty return", and the transportation capacity is only half played; Railway bureaus unwilling to empty can certainly have their own reasons to avoid emptying and further reduce transport capacity.  
   
 At present, the economic form is changing. In fact, China's industrial structure is also changing. You can see the rise of the Central Plains economy. Whether Changsha, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu and Chongqing, the input-output ratio of these cities and regions, that is, the marginal benefit, has exceeded the southeast coastal areas with developed traditional economy. If the epidemic situation causes economic reverse globalization, it will inevitably lead to the ecological redistribution of the domestic industrial chain.  
   
 Once the global supply chain is stagnant or damaged, the southeast coastal area will inevitably become the consumption end, the Central Plains will become the production end, and the western region will become the resource end in the domestic industrial chain ecology. Under the action of economic gradient, the industrial chain ecology of southeast consumption, central production and western resources will be formed.  
 The distance between East and West is long, about 2000-4000 kilometers. It is traditionally estimated that the distance of 600 km is the balance point of highway and railway freight prices. However, due to the high cost of "door-to-door" reception and delivery of railway to highway loading and unloading, it has actually been extended to 1000 km as the price balance point; When the industry and economy of southeast coastal cities and regions turn inward and westward, railway freight will become the mainstream. Coupled with the reduction of coal freight caused by pit mouth power generation and ultra-high voltage power transmission and transformation, 40-60% of the number of empty wagons in railway freight can form "re going back" and "node networking".  
   
 How to innovate this system? First of all, we should solve the problem of online resource constraints of the railway network, that is, turn online resources into offline resources, cancel a certain proportion of automatic loading machines and automatic car dumpers, and the railway freight yard will be naturally released from online resources. If the 35 ton open top box is further changed through "scattered to centralized", the railway freight yard can be successfully changed into offline resources, and the sending bureau can be changed into the receiving Bureau, The receiving bureau can also be the sending Bureau. "Re going back and forth" will double the railway freight transport capacity.  
   
 At the same time, the southeast coastal areas produce the world's most high-quality and cheap "made in China" goods, but the northwest is often unable to enjoy them because of the high logistics cost in the past. Once the railway heavy haul line connects the standard container with the open top container through "scattered to centralized", it will also form an integrated network of bulk logistics and white goods logistics, bringing greater profit space to the railway freight.  
   
 Then the urban centralized distribution of white standard containers also needs systematic innovation.  
   
 Standard containers have been successfully implemented for 80 years in the past, but China's rail sea intermodal transport accounts for only 1.95%, far less than the 49.5% in the United States; The proportion of public rail combined transport is only 2.9%, which is far from 35-40% in Europe and America. Of course, in the environment of "small scattered difference", price distortion and overload of China's road freight, cost is the first factor to consider the market competition. In this way, standard containers are only suitable for water transportation, because large container ships don't care whether the volume ratio and load ratio of standard container are high enough and whether the center of gravity of the goods in the container is offset; However, China's road freight and railway freight, which are fussy about the cost, need a larger volume ratio and load ratio. Railway freight is extremely concerned about the offset of the center of gravity of the container, which affects the driving safety. In addition, whether the loading and unloading enterprise has a high-tech packing master may lead to a deviation of 1 / 3 of the total amount of goods in the container, The existing standard containers must be greatly transformed in order to realize the qualitative improvement of China's rail sea, highway and rail multimodal transport.  
   
 20 years ago, 70% of Global trade was complete vehicles and complete machines; However, statistics in recent three years show that 75% of international trade commodities are parts, and they are standardized and modular parts. This is why ppt alone can make cars. Enterprises increasingly rely on supply chains and industrial clusters to organize production. Among the global trade goods with parts as the core, 60% of the goods have a maximum size of less than 1 m2, which is also coincidentally similar to the box size on the terminal distribution trolley popular in the express industry.  
 Therefore, in 2016, I began to study vehicles suitable for the new generation of multimodal transport, including multimodal transport suitable for air cargo integration. After respective experiments and theoretical deduction, I planned and designed the smallest closed transport unit - "hitchhiker" and its operation system, which takes 1.2m as the longest size and matches the existing standard container with "2x2x3" modulus.  
   
 You can see the picture. In the past, when the automation technology was not strong, what was the method of postal automatic sorting to improve efficiency? In the 1960s, Germany printed four 0-9 postal codes at the fixed position of the envelope. After China Post introduced it, it determined the 6-digit 0-9 postal code according to the needs, and the automatic sorting equipment can sort quickly; But why does it seem that everyone no longer remembers the zip code? Because there is no need, after the QR code is generated, it can be seen from the picture on the right that the express pieces with a side length of 300mm can be sorted efficiently and quickly on the automatic conveyor belt; Then, if we take the Internet of things as the carrier and implant the smart chip in the "versatile box", of course, we can improve the efficient contactless sorting in the process of transportation / transfer by using the portal (bridge) robot.  
   
 More importantly, at present, the freight cost of logistics trunk lines in China is relatively low, but the unit distribution cost of branch logistics and capillary logistics in the last kilometer and last 100m at the end of urban distribution is dozens of times higher than that of trunk logistics. At the same time, there is no buffer between freight stations on the edge of the city and customer factories (residential areas), As a result, the transportation resources (including labor resources) of the freight station and the community are high-cost and idle. Therefore, I especially use the module matching of "wild container" and standard container to build an underground automatic sortable three-dimensional warehouse with a small area (about 100 square meters) in the block, so as to realize the disassembly and consolidation of standard container and "wild container" and inventory caching.  
   
 At the same time, with the support of the "big cloud Mobile Smart zone" technology, the door-to-door closed "wild box" and its operation system can realize complete intelligent planning, intelligent scheduling and intelligent sharing, so as to reduce the cost of branch logistics and capillary logistics of urban distribution to be consistent with trunk logistics, and realize the cost reduction and efficiency increase of the overall logistics system.  
   
 Of course, these three ideas of system innovation from the overall structure of smart logistics to change the world are only my personal imagination and laboratory theoretical deduction, but I am trying to actively communicate with the head enterprises of sea railway, public and air, logistics real estate and commercial enterprises, hoping to realize this dream of surpassing trillion market in the near future, Promote "China logistics" to become an industrial system with global competitiveness as "made in China".