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首页 -Experts -Liu Dacheng -The sharp drop in oil prices promotes China to open up new channels for Logistics

The sharp drop in oil prices promotes China to open up new channels for Logistics

发布时间:2021-12-31作者来源:金航标浏览:2502

March 5OPEC, an oil export organization led by Saudi Arabia, took the initiative to negotiate with Russia and other oil exporting countries to reduce the output of crude oil by 1.5 million barrels / day during the epidemic on the grounds of epidemic prevention and isolation, but it was rejected by Russia. In order to support crown prince Salman to ascend the throne, Saudi Arabia took this opportunity to drive OPEC to retaliate and announce that it will not extend the original "OPEC" production reduction agreement that lasted for three years. On March 7, Saudi Arabia alone announced to increase the crude oil production to 10 million barrels / day, and on March 10, Saudi Arabia announced to increase it again to 12.3 million barrels / day, and the limit production capacity may be increased to the highest level in history of 13 million barrels / day; Russia took the opportunity to retaliate against the US sanctions on the "Beixi 2" (Russia Germany) natural gas pipeline project at the end of 2019 and counterattack the US shale oil and gas industry.

       As a result, crude oil prices in the international market plunged by 40% to the lowest in 18 years. US oil prices hovered below US $20 / barrel for many times, resulting in serious losses and closure of us shale oil and gas enterprises and oil enterprises in Russia's Far East and Siberia.

       Although the United States is bound to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and Russia, due to the impact of the epidemic on the market and Saudi Arabia's core interests to ensure succession to the throne, it is expected that it will be difficult to reverse the decline in crude oil prices by the end of the year. After the epidemic, even if there is a truce between the United States, Russia and OPEC, the economic threat of the rise of new energy industry instead of fossil energy to crude oil exporting countries, the weak consumption caused by the trend of anti globalization and the local vertical trend of supply chain will also affect the recovery of crude oil prices for a long time, which has both advantages and disadvantages for China, which is more than 70% dependent on crude oil import and accounts for 1 / 3 of foreign trade, After the epidemic, the economic structure and industrial structure will inevitably change, and the logistics industry should also make corresponding strategic adjustments.

       After the epidemic, the biggest problem facing China lies in the consumer side, while in the logistics industry, it is reflected that China's international shipping is seriously insufficient to guarantee the global supply chain. According to statistics, among the international maritime carriers, 90% of the freight is carried by foreign ships; It is even dwarfed in air cargo aircraft. FedEx, DHL and ups have more than 70% of the world's cargo aircraft. China's international logistics urgently needs to improve its support capacity for the global supply chain.

       Whether in terms of oil and gas supply guarantee or international trade guarantee, Chinese shipping enterprises are difficult to increase market share on routes dominated by the Strait of Malacca, and must open up a new competitive market. In recent years, there are three schemes to break through the constraints of the Malacca Strait: the Kara canal in Thailand, Gwadar Port in Pakistan and China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar and China Myanmar oil and gas pipeline. The Kara canal scheme was almost terminated because it could easily lead to the North-South Division of Thailand and offend Singapore, which violated the principle of neutrality maintained by Thailand for a long time; The throughput of Gwadar Port with a water depth of 12 meters is insufficient, and the Kashgar Gwadar Port Railway has no technical and cost feasibility because it crosses the 5500 meter plateau.


△ Figure 1 location of Malacca Strait, Gwadar Port in Pakistan and Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar


 

       Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar, with a water depth of 20 meters, can dock 300000 tons of ships. Kunming Ruili Kyaukpyu railway has no technical difficulty, and can directly open the channel from southwest important towns such as Chengdu, Chongqing and Kunming to the Indian Ocean, enhance the economic vitality of Southwest China, and drive the completed China Myanmar oil and gas pipeline with serious losses due to insufficient transportation capacity. The opening of Kunming Ruili Kyaukpyu China Myanmar railway will greatly enhance the logistics support capacity of China's imported energy, and will also use Kyaukpyu port as the fulcrum to promote international sea rail intermodal transport. Of course, it needs to impress the Myanmar government and military forces in northern Myanmar affected by the economy and politics of the United States and Japan with the greatest sincerity and interests.

       At the same time, with structural global warming, China should actively promote the opening of the Arctic golden waterway with Russia. In the extremely short freezing period, it can also rely on Russian icebreakers to realize annual navigation and improve Russia's revenue, which will shorten the navigation period of Asia Europe routes (such as Shanghai Rotterdam) by 1 / 3. In particular, at the time of jointly developing the Arctic golden waterway route with Russia, we will promote the "borrowing port to go to sea" of Zarubino port, which is only more than 70 kilometers away from Hunchun port. By directly connecting Zarubino port (15km tunnel and 12km port dredging railway) in the middle section of Hunchun Suifenhe railway, we can fully realize railway multimodal transport without changing tracks or loading, It can not only innovate and develop China's international logistics market, but also drive the transformation of northeast economic structure.


△ Figure 2 European and North American routes of Zarubino port

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